Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 23, 2024

Media

Iraq

Turkey

Podcasts

Politics

What do organizations need to know as this relationship evolves? 

Essential Geopolitics: What to Know About the Future of Turkey-Iraq Relations

China

Economics

How does the Biden administration's approach compare to the former Trump administration's China strategy? 

Essential Geopolitics: The U.S. Tariff Strategy Against China

U.S.-China Relations

Snapshots

Peru

Peruvian President Dina Boluarte delivers an address to lawmakers in Congress on July 28, 2023.

Repeated impeachment efforts against President Boluarte indicate challenges to policymaking and, to a lesser degree, economic conditions, which will likely persist until the end of Boluarte's term in 2026.

Peru's Yearslong Political Crisis Shows Little Sign of Easing

India

People walk past campaign posters for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) outside the party's office in Leh, India, on May 17, 2024, during the country's ongoing general election.

While highly unlikely to threaten Modi's reelection, the lower turnout seen so far in the ongoing ballot means his party may not secure enough seats in parliament to unilaterally pass constitutional amendments during its next term.

India Election Update: The BJP Is Still Set To Win, But Low Turnout Dims Hopes for a Supermajority

Global Elections

Iran

Rescue team members work at the crash site of a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan, in northwestern Iran, on May 20, 2024. Raisi was declared dead on May 20 after rescue teams found his crashed helicopter.

The death will not significantly impact Iran's regional strategy, but will increase uncertainty surrounding the country's looming supreme leader succession.

Iran's President Raisi Has Died. What Now?

Kenya

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Taiwan

Europe

Spain

Ireland

Taiwanese President-elect William Lai (C) on Jan. 13 in Taipei, Taiwan. Lai will officially begin his four-year presidency May 20.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Kenya's President Visits Washington, Lai Inaugurated in Taiwan

Ukraine

Russia

Ukrainian soldiers fire at a Russian position in Ukraine's Kharkiv region on April 21, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While initially intended to draw Ukrainian resources away from the Donbas region, Russia's new front in the northeastern Kharkiv region will likely become core to Moscow's war efforts in 2025.

Russia's New Front in Kharkiv Raises the Stakes for Ukraine and the West

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Netherlands

The four leaders of the parties that form the new Dutch government,  Geert Wilders, Dilan Yesilgoz, Caroline van der Plas and Pieter Omtzigt, (L-R) on May 16 in The Hague.

While some elements of the new Dutch ruling coalition's agreement, such as a tightening of migration policies and environmental measures, will likely cause friction with the European Union and the Dutch business community, the far right's need to collaborate with mainstream coalition partners has somewhat moderated the new government's agenda.

Building a New Government Moderates the Dutch Far Right

Kuwait

By dissolving parliament and suspending articles of the constitution, Kuwait's emir is hoping to finally enact overdue economic reforms. But fears of sparking public backlash will still limit the scope of those reforms.

Kuwait's Dissolved Parliament Clears the Way for Stalled Economic Reforms

Dominican Republic

Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader delivers a speech to lawmakers in the National Assembly in Santo Domingo on February 27, 2024.

Environment, Science & Technology

President Abinader appears poised to win a second term, which will position the country for continued economic growth. But external threats risk complicating his pro-business agenda.

In the Dominican Republic, the President's Likely Reelection Bodes Well for the Economy, But Challenges Remain

Latest

Cyber

Within America's borders, physical and cyber threats are expected to intensify in the lead-up to the election. Both foreign and domestic actors have already begun to leverage artificial intelligence tools to spread disinformation and deepfake media to influence the outcome or just sow discord. While U.S. authorities have been on high alert for such activity, no one can fully anticipate how the advent and maturation of this disruptive technology will influence the election. In the physical realm, the increasingly polarized political atmosphere will lend itself to a heightened risk of violence and/or protest activity, both before and immediately after the election.

Physical and Cyber Threats in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa greets supporters during an election rally on May 17, 2024, at Lakhis Sports Ground in Greytown, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. 

The May 29 election will likely usher in a new era of coalition governments in South Africa, with President Ramaphosa likely governing with the support of smaller, mostly centrist parties.

Previewing South Africa's General Election

Displaced Palestinians walk around a puddle in front of destroyed buildings and tents in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on May 16, 2024.

All of the options for the enclave's post-war governance would risk destabilizing the Israeli government and are unlikely to prevent the resurgence of Hamas and other militant groups.

The Dilemma of Gaza's Post-War Future Puts Israel in a Tight Spot

An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing, China, on May 23, 2024. 

The drills suggest China will escalate its military coercion during Taiwanese President Lai's four-year term, and could be followed by more extensive drills later this year if the U.S. steps up its support for Taipei.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

Georgia

Georgian students protest the government's controversial ''foreign agents'' bill in Tbilisi on May 13, 2024. 

While the bill's passage may increase and radicalize supporters of the pro-Western opposition, the ruling GD party is still favored to win upcoming elections, ensuring the country's continued reorientation toward Russia.

Georgia Is Set To Adopt Its Controversial 'Foreign Agents' Bill. What Now?

Senegal

Bassirou Diomaye Faye gives an address as Senegal's president at an exhibition center in the new town of Diamniadio near the capital Dakar on April 2, 2024.

Energy

Senegal's young new president will likely slow-walk his plans to renegotiate contracts with energy companies, but this could deny him access to the funding he needs to pursue his economic pledges.

Will Senegal's New President Overhaul Its Oil and Gas Sector?

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro participates in a march for International Workers Day in Bogota, Colombia, on May 1, 2024. 

The ongoing scandals and growing public dissatisfaction with the government will prolong political volatility and policy uncertainty in Colombia, while increasing the risk of social unrest.

What Another Corruption Scandal Means for Colombia's Fragile Government

Columns

On Geopolitics

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

Japan

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Vietnam

United Kingdom

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

Science & Technology

Police officers in Mexico City blocked six lanes of traffic near the Angel of Independence monument in the city center to protest water shortages, which have left their barracks without water for a week, in the latest demonstration over water rationing and shortages in Mexico's capital city, AP reported on May 22. 

Mexico: Protests Continue Over Water Shortages in Mexico City

Ecuador

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency in the provinces of Guayas, El Oro, Santa Elena, Manabi, Sucumbios, Orellana and Los Rios provinces, as well as part of Azuay province, in response to an increase in violent crime in the area, Reuters reported on May 22.

Ecuador: President Declares New State of Emergency Over Security Concerns

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's National Assembly elected Economy Minister and Vice Prime Minister Vital Kamerhe as the assembly’s speaker, Radio France Internationale reported on May 22.

Congo: National Assembly Appoints Speaker in Wake of Alleged Coup Attempt

Haiti

U.S. President Joe Biden will designate Kenya as a major non-NATO ally, making it the first sub-Saharan African country to receive the designation, Bloomberg reported on May 23.

Kenya, U.S.: U.S. To Label Kenya as Major Non-NATO Ally, Expand Investment as Haiti Deployment Nears

Germany

France

Austria

Italy

The far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group in the European Parliament has expelled Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party following a series of scandals, including remarks by the party's leading election candidate Maximilian Krah to Italian newspaper La Repubblica on May 18 that the "SS were not all criminals," German news agency dpa reported May 23.

Germany, EU: Europe's Far-Right Divisions Widen as Germany's AfD is Expelled from EU Parliament Group

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and German Economy Minister Robert Habeck adopted a joint paper setting out the Franco-German position on how the next European Commission should boost growth and competitiveness in the European Union, Euractiv reported May 23.

France, Germany, EU: Paris and Berlin Call for European Tech Deal and Reforms to Boost Competitiveness

At least 12 Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded in a two-day Israeli military operation against Palestinian militant groups in the West Bank city of Jenin, AP reported on May 23.

West Bank: Israel Completes Two-Day Military Operations in Jenin

The U.S. Biden administration is debating relaxing its ban on Ukraine using certain long-range U.S.-supplied weapons to strike inside Russia, The New York Times reported on May 22.

Ukraine, U.S.: Washington Considers Allowing Kyiv To Use U.S. Weapons in Russia

Cambodia

The Mekong River and Tonle Sap River meet at Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

The project will substantially reduce Cambodia's trade dependence on Vietnam, while contributing to China's broader geopolitical goal of constructing a global network of friendly ports.

Cambodia's Funan Techo Canal Marks a Loss for Vietnam and a Win for China

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

United Arab Emirates

Microsoft vice chair and president Brad Smith said the company's artificial intelligence deal with UAE-backed company Group 42, or G42, could eventually involve the export of critical AI technologies and components, including weights for an AI model and sophisticated chips, Reuters reported on May 22.

U.S., UAE: Microsoft To Export Critical AI Technologies in Deal With UAE's G42

Young supporters of Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, will protest outside the Legislative Yuan on May 24 over attempts by the opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party to push through reforms that would make public officials, especially new President William Lai, more answerable to the legislature, TaiwanPlus reported on May 22. 

Taiwan: Ongoing Protests Show Difficulty of Compromise Internally and With China

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Mexico: Protests Continue Over Water Shortages in Mexico City

Ecuador: President Declares New State of Emergency Over Security Concerns

Congo: National Assembly Appoints Speaker in Wake of Alleged Coup Attempt

Kenya, U.S.: U.S. To Label Kenya as Major Non-NATO Ally, Expand Investment as Haiti Deployment Nears

Germany, EU: Europe's Far-Right Divisions Widen as Germany's AfD is Expelled from EU Parliament Group

France, Germany, EU: Paris and Berlin Call for European Tech Deal and Reforms to Boost Competitiveness

West Bank: Israel Completes Two-Day Military Operations in Jenin

Ukraine, U.S.: Washington Considers Allowing Kyiv To Use U.S. Weapons in Russia

U.S., UAE: Microsoft To Export Critical AI Technologies in Deal With UAE's G42

Taiwan: Ongoing Protests Show Difficulty of Compromise Internally and With China

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